By Adam Warner
So with the Mets up 5-1 in the bottom of the 6th on Sunday, 1 out, and David Eckstein on 2nd, Tom Glavine looks pretty spent. Preston Wilson smacks a sharp base hit right at Carlos Beltran.
The TV angle was from behind Beltran, and you got a clear view that he could get Eckstein out at the plate with a good throw.
Which we know he made.
Disastrous decision right? Not by 3rd base coach Jose Oquendo, but by Beltran for not throwing to 2nd and holding Wilson on 1st.
At least that's what Joe Morgan told us.
Using some math-generated win probabilities for every game situation (not sure why I have these), the Cards had a 17.13% chance of winning the game had they just held Eckstein. By sending him and getting him thrown out, their odds dropped to 9.53%. Or a pretty significant 7.60% drop IN ONE PLAY.
What did Beltran risk on his throw, assuming he's letting the runner score and that risk was merely letting Wilson go from 1st to 2nd? The Cards odds go from 19.03% to 20.48%, or a 1.45% bump.
So in other words, Beltran's throw makes all the sense in the world. If he makes that same decision 4 times, and only connects once, he's STILL the better for it.
Tony LaRussa and his Technicolor Dream Hair obviously know all this.
"kind of a foolish throw."
"I don't think you make that throw too often, and he pulled it off," the manager added. "That's the kind of night they had."
OK, maybe not.