Met fans, though, aren't so stupid. We merely notice the painfully obvious. Like re-signing Oliver Perez was a major risk. At the time, he looked like a reasonable risk as a fifth starter. Just like Kelvim Escobar was a reasonable risk. Mike Jacobs, a reasonable chance. Gary Matthews, especially as insurance against losing Beltran for any length of time, and for the money the Mets would be paying for him.
It is incredibly short-sighted to judge a contract on the first year, or a trade on a half-season.
Painfully obvious? Oliver Perez is not now a major league pitcher. When he can, on those rare occasions, throw strikes, he finds a way to lose. In Miami, it was giving meat pitches to Marlins that don't miss easy home runs. Perez doesn't belong in the rotation, and doesn't belong in the bullpen. If he won't accept assignment to the minors (see Steve Trachsel), perhaps he should be assigned to the disabled list. Pulled brain muscle, perhaps?
You can't fault Jerry Manuel or Omar Minaya for John Maine starting a game with 12 balls to the first three batters. Kind of like Jerrod Saltalamacchia not being able to throw the ball back to the pitcher.
You can't fault Manuel or Minaya that David Wright is missing in action. Who is that imposter? That's not David that's "0 and 2 on" Wright playing third base. Or Sunday against the Marlins, misplaying third base. Yes, he's a Gold Glover. But the Marlins big inning started with a single that should have been an out. Wright dribbled a throw to first. Later Wright made an error. And ole'd a grounder that he normally makes a play on okay, that one was tough. Monday night he had one, the same kind, with nobody on. Made it just fine.
Now, Jonathan Niese is hurt, because he twisted his arm trying to throw to first when Wright got too close. My guess is Niese goes DL. [He has.] And if Perez gets to stay in the rotation because of it, well that would indicate that Manuel needs to get the boot. That would be the last straw.
So where are we? Rooting for a team that is suffering in the rotation, and suffering at the plate. Too many walks by the pitchers way too many. Too many strikeouts at the plate in a lineup loaded with strikeout players. Wright didn't use to uppercut everything. Look at the swing from three years ago. Look at him over the last two years. Citi Field is no excuse.
They swing at bad pitches and take good ones. Reyes, clearly is struggling, in the three hole or at the top or the lineup. Eventually he'll be the Reyes of old. How eventually?
Don't get me wrong. I love Wright, I love Reyes. I want them to be the players the Mets signed for years to be their cornerstones. I want Beltran back, because he's the missing link in the lineup. Beltran puts Wright back at third in the order, Bay fifth, Reyes leading off. If/when Beltran gets back, the strikeout totals of Wright, Bay, and Francouer all go down.
How, you ask? Simple. More baserunners. More fastballs. Better hitting. Normally bats start to heat up over the summer, when the weather gets hotter. It's a long season. With more speed on base, like Reyes, Castillo, Pagan, Wright, Beltran, and Bay, you have guys who can steal bases. Even Frenchy's been known to steal now and then.
The southern bureau of Mike's Mets, NostraDennis and myself, made a field trip to see a couple of games at Dolphins Stadium last September, or whatever that stadium was called then or now. It was the weekend before the season ended. We saw a very forgettable Saturday night game, and a Sunday game that made me lose my voice, because it was shocking. It was the first complete game shutout by the Mets last year, and it wasn't against a bunch of minor leaguers, either. (More on the trip another time.)
Pat Misch threw it. He battled, he got some help, but he battled and pitched well. The Mets got another complete game shutout before the last day of the season, too. Nelson Figueroa threw it.
Did Misch or Figueroa deserve a shot at the rotation? Probably not out of spring training. Niese was anointed part of the future and has performed reasonably well. Perez and Maine, while not showing much in spring training, are key cogs and deserved their shots. Santana, who did not pitch well in the spring, gave zero reason to believe that he would NOT be Johan Santana when the bell rang, and guess what, he's pitched like Johan Santana, aside from the bomb game. If anyone is worried about Santana, they know nothing about baseball. He's fine, and he'll be fine, and is the leader of the pitching staff.
As much as I'd like to see Gary Matthews be successful and be a perfect outfield backup to Pagan and Francouer, did we really need a dribbler back to the mound, a called third strike, and a room-service double-play grounder late in a close game to make it obvious that he doesn't belong on a major-league roster right now? It was a great deal, getting Los Angeles to pay that much money to get rid of him. It's pretty obvious now why.
Bring on Dickey. Bring on Takahashi. Let's get this goat out of the barn.
Oh my goodness. Tonight, an inside-the-park home run by Pagan. And a triple play BY the Mets, started by Pagan!! Don't remember ever, EVER seeing the Mets pull one. Oh wait, we're still losing. Can we please get a run? Please?
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Nope. It's not a dream. These first-place Mets are a good team. But we know intuitively that they're not "8 wins out of 10" good. What they've been so far is a combination of lucky and opportunistic. When you give up five hits and five walks in five innings, you can't expect a win, but that's what new Mets ace Mike Pelfrey got the other night -- a shutout win, no less. When your offense in that game consists of five singles and a well-timed scamper around the bases by Jose ("Mis Tendones Son Bien") Reyes, you can't expect a win. The Mets are getting wins we shouldn't rightly expect out of them right now. In recent years, we've sure had enough unexpected losses, so let's just smile and accept these gifts. Doubleheader sweep over the Dodgers? That hadn't happened in decades, until last night.
On Opening Day, this was my list of things to be concerned about: 1) The #2 Pitcher; 2) The #3 Pitcher; 3) The #4 Pitcher; 4) Will Bay Fit In Smoothly?; 5) The 7th and 8th Innings. Today, their starting rotation isn't Johan the Ace and the Four Jokers any more. It's Pelf the Ace, King Johan, and a box of cherries. Because you never know what you're gonna get from the other three. The good news is, the Mets are leading all of baseball in strikeouts (by their pitchers, not their hitters). The bad news is, they're leading all of baseball in issuing walks. That means our starters are throwing way too many pitches. Even when the results are good, that tendency is troubling. In April, you can get away with that. So far, the seventh and eighth innings have not proven to be nailbiters for Mets fans as they have in the recent past. But in June, July and August, this inefficiency will turn into an overworked, sputtering bullpen, blown leads, and heartbreaking losses.
Jason Bay has proven to be a good fit in Flushing right from Opening Day. It's not even a major worry that it took him three weeks to go yard for the first time as a Met. In Citi Field, triples are the new home run, and a .280 batting average makes you the best-hitting Mets regular. How good will they play when their bats finally thaw out? Thank goodness, Bay has proven to be Not Juan Samuel, just as Ike Davis is clearly Not Mo Vaughn. While the Mets' offense isn't lighting up the scoreboard, they've only been blown out twice all year. Conversely, though, they've lost four games by one run, and have only won two. That's a cause for concern, but not despair.
It's human nature as a Mets fan to project their 2007 and 2008 seasons (plus their last game in 2006) as the inevitable future this year. Close enough to compete and impress, not enough to complete the job. Hopefully, that gloomy fatalism is wrong. The last six games have shown us a glimmer that this nice dream has half a chance to turn into reality in September. Since the title of this post quotes Talking Heads, and the opening sentence paraphrases Lionel Ritchie, let's end this by taking the advice of a verse from Crosby Stills and Nash. Just relax. Enjoy the ride.
We will never now for sure which decisions can be attributed to whom, but Omar Minaya is the final arbiter on the roster.
True, we are only eight games into the season.
True, there have been a few positives (the Francoeur deal continues to look great, D. Wright seems to have his power stroke back, Big Pelf's new split finger looks terrific and the bullpen has looked surprisingly deep).
True, the 1969 Mets and other championship teams have had equally poor starts.
But many of us are just plain curious...
THE CURIOUS CASE OF JOHN MAINE
Clearly, Maine's fastball is not what it once was. And for a 29-year-old, that spells trouble. The loss of velocity was obvious all spring and no one was fooled. Yet, there was Maine in the 2nd spot in the rotation. Coming off an injury season and surgery, Omar could have opted for an extended spring that would have included a month to six weeks of experimental starts at Buffalo instead of in The Show. There were two viable right-handed options (Figueroa and Nieve), two valuable left-handed options (Misch and Takahashi) and a knuckleballer in RA Dickey (complete game tonight in Buffalo), who would have introduced an entirely different and plausible look to the Mets rotation. And with so many viable options, the same argument can be made in terms of Oliver Perez.
THE CURIOUS CASE OF CHRIS CARTER
Perhaps no one in the Mets system rakes like Chris Carter, who has been given the moniker of "The Animal" by his fellow players. By ALL accounts, Carter's work ethic and bulldog approach is unparalleled in Metsville. Tonight, he went 4 for 4 at Buffalo. All spring, Carter put his wares on display and received rave reviews. So, why in Buffalo and not at Citi Field? Omar says poor Chris was just unlucky to have several options remaining. Compounding the issue was the injury to Daniel Murphy, which should have made the decision to keep Carter even easier. But no. Instead, the Mets chose to go with Mike Jacobs, who is a good guy, but we all know what he can and cannot do. Perhaps he delivers a bit more leather, but he is nothing more than than average. Carter is probably average or slightly worse. And even with Jacobs in the mix, why is Frank Catalanotto on the roster rather than Carter, especially when it appears Manuel is using Catalanotto only for pinch-hitting duty and the occasional double switch in LF and 1B, the two spots Carter also plays?
THE CURIOUS CASE OF GARY MATTHEWS JR.
In spite of the Beltran setback and surgery, the Mets had a younger, faster, better-hitting version of this guy for roughly the same cost. Again, we could have had the far better hitting Carter, in a utility and pinch-hitting role, instead of the older version of Angel Pagan (who needs to play every day during Beltran's absence, which is likely to last through all of May). The only logical explanation for keeping Matthews around is that the Mets can shop both Pagan and Matthews upon the imminent return of Beltran and make the best available deal, assuming one presents itself.
THE CURIOUS CASE OF JENNRY MEIJA
Here, it is likely Jerry Manuel got his way and put young Meija (20 years old) on the roster in a minor bullpen role with the hopes of having an 8th Inning setup guy by the end of May. Those of us who were arguing to keep him a starter and get more seasoning were somewhat perplexed that Omar allowed Jerry to get his way. We need starters now and in the future. There are plenty of bullpen options always available and the Mets have stockpiled Manny Acosta, Elmer Dessens and Kiko Calero, among others, at Buffalo. And just today, there is talk, emanating from the Mets (Manuel in particular), that maybe they are better off letting Meija stretch it out as a starter in Binghamton. There's a revelation. There are other reasons that are pretty compelling, not the least of which is, why start the arbitration/free-agency clock earlier than necessary? The Mets have now done just that with Meija and Tejada, but are clearly trying to keep the issue at bay with the high-upside Ike Davis by keeping him on the farm. So, how did the Meija two-pitch, walk-off HR to the Rockies help his development?
If the Mets are to make some wholesale changes that pack a wallop, they need to decide how the starting rotation shakes out and they may need to decide quickly. Santana/Misch/Pelfrey/Neise/Takahashi or Santana/Pelfrey/Niese/Dickey/Misch will do better than what they are throwing out there right now. The scrap pile of Jarred Washburn, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz will be of no use to this club. By and by, Joel Piniero looked pretty good against the Highlanders.
Adding Dessens and Acosta to the bullpen to replace Meija and/or Takahashi adds proven veteran arms and allows Meija to pursue the starting ranks where he currently belongs.
Releasing Jacobs or Catalanotto and putting Carter in a 1B platoon with Fernando Tatis should be a no-brainer until Murphy returns. After Jacobs' poor play around the sack today, what are they waiting for?
One of the things that really makes Mets fans cringe is never seeing our players among the league leaders in any positive category and it is hard to imagine any current Met leading the league, no less MLB in any category this year, especially with Jose Reyes likely to be doing a lot less base stealing,K-Rod without a save and Jason Bay with one RBI and no HRs.
Nothing placates the faithful more than seeing heads roll at the top. And in NY, such cries are going to get louder and louder and will deeply affect everyone connected with the team. Did you see Maine and Manuel the past two days? Omar seems to be AWOL.
Getting rid of Manuel is not going to solve the problems, but getting rid of Minaya, Manuel and perhaps Dan Warthen will stir the pot and buy some time for ownership to avert what could be a potentially disastrous season. No one will really care who replaces Omar, but the faithful want Wally Backman (and not Oberkfell, Collins or Melvin) in the dugout. Wally may be just the right man for a team that needs motivation and he has a powerful Mets identity. And what about Bobby Ojeda to replace Warthen? Not likely, but the man sure knows how to analyze the mechanics of pitching.
The real folks who have to go are the owners.
Fred, Jeff and Saul--Please sell and lets get owners who are truly dedicated to getting the job done.
I'm not trying to do a ton of game analysis this season. I try to get something with some thoughts on each game, but my work schedule doesn't allow me to post after games in a timely fashion. I keep it brief and to the point, and hope to write more commentary type pieces.
Yesterday's game against the Nats doesn't even warrant a short game analysis. What really struck me about the game was that it reminded me so much of so many games I saw both in person and on tv last season.
I see this club as a .500 team, similar to the 2005 team. I could accept that and live with it, provided they play hard and play smart. Unfortunately, I saw neither yesterday.
I made it into the sixth inning yesterday when I just decided I had enough. It was a beautiful day outside and there were things to be done in the yard.
It bothers me that we're only one homestand into the season. I look forward all winter for baseball to come back, and I hate it that I already feel tired of watching this team.
After losing 4 out of 6 at home against the Marlins and Nats, the Mets hit the road for Colorado and St. Louis. If they play like this, they won't win a game.
It's time for the wakeup call, or many Mets fans might wind up falling asleep on this team. I know we're only a week into the season, but if there is one thing that the Mets can't afford in the early going, it is the perception of lack of focus and effort.
]]>One of the bigger questions for the Mets this year is which Oliver Perez will show up -- the good Ollie, who can be a dominating left-handed pitcher, or the bad Ollie, who doesn't have a clue where the ball is going when it leaves his hand.
Both Ollies showed up yesterday. While he looked impressive at times, it was walks and poorly located pitches that eventually did him in.
I know I'm a lot less pessimistic about Perez than the majority of fans. I think he can pitch well enough over this season and next to hold down a rotation slot. I doubt very much, however, that he will ever find himself a real fan favorite.
Perez is more than capable of getting hot and putting a real good streak of games together, but as soon as he falters he's sure to get booed by the home fans. Really, the best-case scenario for him would seem to be a solid couple of seasons to fulfil this contract and then for the Mets to let him move on.
I favored signing Derek Lowe over Perez back in the winter of 08-09, but I'm not sure I wouldn't feel worse about 3 more years of Lowe than 2 of Perez -- particularly since Lowe would have cost more per season.
Lowe hasn't looked at all like a solid #2 pitcher in Atlanta, and he's 37 now. He's won 17 and lost 10 in his season + with the Braves, but that was with the Braves' offense behind him. His ERA was 4.67 last year.
As for Willie Harris robbing the Mets of chance to win -- it's frustrating, but if the offense could have produced at all earlier in the game he wouldn't have had the chance. I find the 2-14 the Mets were with RISP more frustrating by far.
| Oliver Perez (0-1) | ||||||||||||
| Date | Opp. | IP | R | ER | H | K | BB | HR | ERA | WHIP | Team Result | Pitcher Result |
| 4/10 | WAS | 5.2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 6.35 | 1.41 | L | L |
| April (1 Game) | 5.2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 6.35 | 1.41 | 0-1 | 0-1 | |
| Season (1 Game) | 5.2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 6.35 | 1.41 | 0-1 | 0-1 | |
| Month By Month | ||||||||||
| Month | Starts | IP/Start | H/9 | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| April | 1 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 6.35 | .190 | .320 | .286 |
| Season | 1 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 6.35 | .190 | .320 | .286 |
| Mike Pelfrey (1-0) | ||||||||||||
| Date | Opp. | IP | R | ER | H | K | BB | HR | ERA | WHIP | Team Result | Pitcher Result |
| 4/9 | WAS | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3.00 | 1.33 | W | W |
| April (1 Game) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3.00 | 1.33 | 1-0 | 1-0 | |
| Season (1 Game) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3.00 | 1.33 | 1-0 | 1-0 | |
| Month By Month | ||||||||||
| Month | Starts | IP/Start | H/9 | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| April | 1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 3.00 | .182 | .308 | .318 |
| Season | 1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 3.00 | .182 | .308 | .318 |
| John Niese (0-1) | ||||||||||||
| Date | Opp. | IP | R | ER | H | K | BB | HR | ERA | WHIP | Team Result | Pitcher Result |
| 4/8 | FLA | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4.50 | 1.67 | L | L |
| April (1 Game) | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4.50 | 1.67 | 0-1 | 0-1 | |
| Season (1 Game) | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4.50 | 1.67 | 0-1 | 0-1 | |
| Month By Month | ||||||||||
| Month | Starts | IP/Start | H/9 | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| April | 1 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 4.50 | .308 | .357 | .462 |
| Season | 1 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 4.50 | .308 | .357 | .462 |
| John Maine (0-0) | ||||||||||||
| Date | Opp. | IP | R | ER | H | K | BB | HR | ERA | WHIP | Team Result | Pitcher Result |
| 4/7 | FLA | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7.20 | 1.80 | L | ND |
| April (1 Game) | 5 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.20 | 1.80 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| Season (1 Game) | 5 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.20 | 1.80 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| Month By Month | ||||||||||
| Month | Starts | IP/Start | H/9 | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| April | 1 | 5.0 | 14.4 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 7.20 | .364 | .391 | .682 |
| Season | 1 | 5.0 | 14.4 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 7.20 | .364 | .391 | .682 |
| Johan Santana (1-1) | ||||||||||||
| Date | Opp. | IP | R | ER | H | K | BB | HR | ERA | WHIP | Team Result | Pitcher Result |
| 4/5 | FLA | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1.50 | 1.00 | W | W |
| 4/11 | WAS | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9.00 | 1.60 | L | L |
| April (2 Games) | 11 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 4.91 | 1.27 | 1-1 | 1-1 | |
| Season (2 Games) | 11 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 4.91 | 1.27 | 1-1 | 1-1 | |
| Month By Month | ||||||||||
| Month | Starts | IP/Start | H/9 | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| April | 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 4.91 | .231 | .318 | .410 |
| Season | 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 4.91 | .231 | .318 | .410 |
All of the hand-wringing over Mike Pelfrey's spring numbers can come stop, at least for a few days, as Pelfrey delivered a solid 6 inning effort in his first game that counts.
That split-fingered change he throws looks like it can be that effective off-speed pitch that he's needed, and the sinker looked good, too. Pelfrey kept his focus when things got tough and acquitted himself well for his first time out.
It would be nice if this quiets down all of the hysteria that accompanied each spring start, but we're probably one tough outing away from it all coming back.
For what it's worth, I really like Pelfrey's chances of becoming a more consistently effective starting pitcher this year, and have all spring.
I'm still trying to find the time in my crazy life to finish my season preview with the position players. Count me among those as intellectually skeptical of Jeff Francoeur maintaining enough patience to remain the everyday right fielder, but rooting like hell to be wrong. You just have to admire the kid's personality and what he brings to the club, and I don't know how you could root against him.
So far so good. I think the true test will be when he hits a prolonged slump if he can still maintain a good approach.
Oh, and viva Barajas! Bengie who?
Jon Niese looked pretty good in his first start, but the Mets left their bats at home last night.
I was impressed how much mileage Niese got out of his fastball and cutter last night. If he takes what he did last night and mixes in a few more of those big curves he has a real chance to be a really solid major league starting pitcher.
He looks clearly more poised than he did in his previous major league starts, and I have a feeling he will stick this time.
As for the offense, I guess we can only hope that Jose Reyes' return will spark it up a little. If nothing else, it will rescue Jerry Manuel from himself, batting Cora leadoff.
Just a few more scattered thoughts:
It's not that Gary Matthews Jr. is doing a bad job, but to my mind Angel Pagan needs to get the majority of ABs in center until Beltran returns. He's just a better hitter, and the Mets need offense. Particularly since I see no appreciable gap in defensive skills.
I wonder how much time the Jacobs/Tatis platoon gets at 1B before the team feels the need to bring up Ike Davis or give Chris Carter a shot.
Good performance from the bullpen last night. If they can hold their own this team can contend. I like what I saw from Niese, and think Pelfrey and Perez will be okay. We'll see if Maine recovers his velocity before I have any worthwhile opinion on him.
There were several different story lines running through this one -- the offense was pretty bad, some dumb plays on the bases, and the Marlins bullpen looks a little shaky in the early going.
The biggest story, however, was John Maine's struggles. He lacked velocity and location all day, and needed over 90 pitches to navigate five rather unsuccessful innings.
Maine started out behind in spring training, and doesn't at all look like the pitcher he was two years ago. There's talk in the media and around the blogs of replacing him already.
I'd be inclined to give him a few starts, although I'd like to see his fastball bounce back into the low 90s consistently. The Mets really need to make a decision once and for all on Maine this year, but certainly not right now.
Well run clubs (or those that at least aspire to be) don't make snap decisions on their players. If it's mostly a question of arm strength with Maine I don't have a problem running him out there. There are no great alternate options, anyway.
I loved Nelson Figueroa's story as much as anyone, but 36-year-old starters belong on win-now clubs. I don't see the Mets in that category, and I feel like they are better served long term by finding out if Maine can bounce back.
For the first time in several campaigns, no one picks the Mets the win the NL East and few pick them for the NL Wild Card. Perhaps we have been blessed by the lowering of expectations?
For those of us who prefer to see the glass as half full, there are four things to keep in mind as we begin yet another baseball season which brings to a close our annual ordeal that began last October 4 with what seemed like a hoard of Mets on the disabled list:
1. In spite of Reyes (back within a week), Murphy (back within three weeks) and Beltran (back within six weeks) on the DL, it is almost impossible for a repeat of the injuries that plagued the team in 2009.
2. There IS talent in the Mets system in spite of what the pundits have been pushing the past few years. And in case you don't believe it, how many teams would like to have Jennry Meija, Fernando Martinez, Ike Davis, Josh Thole, Ruben Tejada, Bobby Parnell, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Toby Stoner and a few other studs, all of whom will be ready to play regularly in The Show between now and April 2012 (at the latest)? By and by, these some-ready and some-on-the-cusp-of-ready guys also create the stopgap that was sorely missing last year when Omar Minaya had to undertake a scavenger hunt through the MLB junkyard.
3. This team will rake.
4. This season, the team of Omar/Jeff will have plenty of talent and prospects to deal for a high-grade piece or two prior to the July 31 deadline. That could include John Maine, Fernando Nieve, Daniel Murphy, Omir Santos, Chris Carter and even Gary Matthews or Angel Pagan, not to mention the best corps of prospects the Mets have had since the early 1980s.
All the question marks (outside of: Can the Mets stay healthy?) revolve around the pitching staff, but even there, the depth is far greater than 2009. Fact is, without the outrageous contract in the possession of Oliver Perez, most Mets watchers would have rather slotted in lefties Hasinori Takahashi or Pat Misch, or righties Nelson Figueroa or Nieve. While they will likely lose Figueroa, the other three are in the fold and ready to go.
The bullpen also has a new look and lots of question marks, but Minaya's habit of stocking arms may well help the Mets in a number of ways. Veterans Kiko Calero, Elmer Dessens, Manny Acosta and RA Dickey can be called up in minutes. Never underestimate veteran depth for the pen. And don't forget Bobby Parnell could make a second half return.
There are other subtle improvements that make the Mets a better all-around team in 2010. The catching corps is very deep. In fact, Barajas and Blanco are among the top defensive catchers in the game, know how to handle a pitching staff and will not embarrass the Mets at the plate. Josh Thole, a fine hitting prospect by all measures, is also said to be developing his defensive skills faster and better than most observers had anticipated.
Speed and defense should also improve noticeably.
The Mets led the NL in stolen bases in 2009 without Jose Reyes in the lineup for 125 games. Francoeur, Bay, Murphy, Cora, Matthews, Pagan and Tatis can easily contribute 60 SB, while Wright, Castillo and Beltran can easily do the same. If Jose Reyes produces an equal measure, which is well within his ability, the Mets will dominate the basepaths.
Defensively, there is no doubt the Mets are improved. As previously mentioned, a huge defensive upgrade at catcher. Jason Bay, who looks like a much better player than some of us anticipated, has a great arm and gets a good jump. He is also "sneaky fast" in terms of a power hitter. With a similar defensive player in RF in Francoeur and the serviceable Matthews, as a defensive replacement, the outfield has considerably improved, and even more so when Beltran enters the fray. The infield benefits as well with the return of Reyes and Murphy since they are both very rangy.
While overall depth, speed and improved defense and power will help, 2010 will boil down to starting pitching. Johan is a going to be good even if he is not dominating. The other four starters are going to have to deliver quality starts three out of four times out. If three of them fail to do that, the Mets are in trouble. If two of them do it, they can contend. If three of them do it, they can take the NL East.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
SHORT STOPS
BUFFALO'S OUTFIELD LOOKING VERY POWERFUL
With Chris Carter in LF, Jason Pridie in CF and Fernando Martinez learning his new position of RF, the Bisons' left-handed hitting brigade is going to put some fear into right-handed hurlers. Nick Evans will play often at the two corners and a touch at 1B for a bit of balance. If Carter starts strong and Mike Jacobs and Frank Catalanotto falter, look for Carter to enhance the Mets bench shortly after Murphy returns. No doubt he is the best hitter in the bunch. Carter's achilles heel has always been his glove, but those May and June inter-league games would be one heck of a showcase at DH.
MEIJA BETTER OFF STARTING IN BINGHAMTON
Many have said it during the past two weeks, but the Mets would be far better off developing the impressive Meija as a starting pitcher. What is the weakest link going into 2010? Once the bullpen washes out a bit and Calero, Dessens and Acosta have aired it out in Buffalo, the Mets need to send Meija down to eat innings and develop good secondary pitches, which is something Parnell and Eddie Kunz are about to attempt, likely as starting pitchers.
COACHING MAY WELL BE IMPROVED THROUGHOUT THE METS SYSTEM
Adding Dave Jauss (bench coach) and Chip Hale (third base) to the staff is just the beginning of the story. Wally Backman (Cyclone's manager) may end up being the most important addition since his entire coaching/managing career has revolved around developing young players and creating solid fundamentals and team play. It looks like Terry Collins (Director of Minor League Development) may well have inherited a much better group of prospects than was anticipated.
POSTSEASON PICKS
NL - Phillies/Cardinals/Rockies/Mets edge Braves for Wild Card
AL - Bosox/Chisox/Angels/Rays edge Highlanders for Wild Card
OPENING DAY RIGHT IN THE METS' WHEELHOUSE
In keeping with tradition, the Amazin's posted another terrific opening day victory via some outstanding pitching by Santana, Nieve and K-Rod as well as the big right-handed bats throughout the lineup. The newcomers Bay, Matthews and Barajas contributed multiple-hit efforts, but the big blast came in the first frame off the bat of the now pumped-up D. Wright, who muscled the ball over the rightfield fence. Some outstanding defense by the Mets was contrasted against a host of defensive lapses by The Fish, who may have the only first baseman in MLB (Gaby Sanchez) who has no concept of how to stretch from the bag to receive a throw. A nice unassisted double play by Hanley Ramirez kept the contest from being a complete blowout.
I was at Opening Day yesterday thanks to Dana Brand, the author of the wonderful The Last Days of Shea.
The sun was shining, the temperature was comfortable, and for at least a day we were able to put aside all of the over the top criticism and enjoy the hope and love for the game that Opening Day signifies.
I enjoyed being at the game and just being a fan. I wasn't worried about how the rest of the rotation will fare or if Jenrry Mejia is ready to be here. I didn't agree with everything that Jerry Manuel did yesterday (Jacobs 4, Bay 5 -- really?), but I liked the attempted squeeze and the way the Mets went about their business yesterday.
We'll be posting a column from Dave Mills later on and I still hope to finish my season preview before the second game is played.