Mike's Mets

Add Newark Star-Ledger columnist Dan Graziano to those calling for the head of Mets manager Willie Randolph. After making the point that the Mets are 71-71 since last June 1, Graziano accuses the Mets of not playing up to their talent level, and places the blame squarely on Randolph's shoulders:

Where Randolph comes up short is in his failure to recognize what kind of team he has and manage accordingly. Randolph is a decent man who cares deeply about his team and his job and believes strongly in himself. But he's also stubborn, and that's what has him in trouble.

Randolph came from the Yankees, where the championship teams of the late '70s and the late '90s were packed with hard-nosed winners. He believes he shouldn't need to motivate or fire up big-league players, because his teams never needed that.

In principle, he's right. He shouldn't need to remind major-league players that it's important to raise their games in big spots, or not to take games or at-bats off.

But unfortunately for Randolph, his players are soft. His players are the types who don't raise their games in big spots, who do take at-bats off. His players coast through long stretches of the season, assuming their talent will carry them through without any extra effort or emotion on their part. His players are not self-motivators, and they are a group that might respond well to being scared every now and then.

While I do believe that Randolph has himself to blame in many ways for the tenuous nature of his job security, I don't agree with Graziano that the Mets players are "soft". I think you could certainly have made that argument last season, but I don't see them coasting this season. If anything, they seem to be pressing a little too much at times on offense. "Scaring" the players doesn't seem a recipe for a turnaround.

A team always looks like they're flat when they're not hitting. Nothing is tougher to watch than inning after inning of little offensive action. Scaring, screaming and discipline don't usually make things better. Slumps are most often caused by players trying too hard and not letting the game come to them rather than through disinterest and a lack of toughness.

Carlos Delgado's woes (.216/.308/.362) have been beaten to death, but he has lots of company:

Jose Reyes has been hot and cold so far. He has scored only 18 runs in 32 games, which would translate out to 90 in a full season. That doesn't cut it.

David Wright is batting .262. Does anyone believe he's coasting?

Beltran is hitting .218. He only has 13 RBI on the season, which would translate to 65 for a full year. He only has 2 HR. That would work out to 12. Remember, this is our cleanup hitter.

C Brian Schneider has zero extra base hits in 65 AB. I repeat, zero. Even the light-hitting Luis Castillo has three doubles.

It's not just hitting. Oliver Perez, Aaron Heilman and Jorge Sosa are off to bad starts, and Pedro couldn't make it past 3 innings into the season before getting hurt.

I'm no homer. I repeatedly called the Mets on what I perceived as a lack of commitment to putting it all on the line last year. I honestly haven't seen that this season. They're just not playing well right now.

Willie is an easy target, because he continually gives the impression that he's just fiddling while Rome is burning, and somehow doesn't recognize that his team needs a kick in the ass. Actually, when you look at the offensive numbers they've probably done well to play close to .500 ball up to now.

You have to believe that Reyes, Wright and Beltran have some hot streaks coming. Delgado is showing some signs of being something more than an automatic out. Ramon Castro is coming back and should provide some punch against lefties.

Other than Ryan Church, I don't think there is a guy on this team -- pitcher or position player -- who got off to a hot start. I've already listed several who have struggled. Given that, I have to believe that there's probably some better baseball coming. Things have a way of evening out.

Perhaps Randolph's days as manager are numbered. If they continue to stumble along, I could see it happening. It's too easy, however, to make him the sole scapegoat for a somewhat slow start. You need to see where this team is once these players start performing closer to their potential. If they're still hovering around mediocre, then it will indeed and fairly be time for a change.

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Authored by Mike Steffanos, Posted at 7:09 PM Friday, May 9, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (0)

On the one hand it's a little frustrating, because with a clutch hit or two in Tuesday night's game the Mets could have had a terrific 4-2 swing through Phoenix and LA. On the other, if they hadn't won this one it would have been really ugly. In any event, it's a 3-3 road trip with all of the same questions still hanging over this team with one-fifth of their schedule completed.

One Met who has the right answers lately is John Maine. His pitching secured 2 of the Mets 3 wins on this trip. An 8-1/3 inning effort gave a tired bullpen a needed night off. He's back to pitching aggressively and throwing strikes, and he's also chipping in with the lumber -- his first hit of the season plated 2 runs.

The Mets let the Dodgers off the hook in Tuesday night's loss, but they weren't so generous to Brad Penny Wednesday afternoon. They pounded LA's starter for 10 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work, pushing his ERA from 3.19 to 4.79 in the process. This was despite Moises Alou and Carlos Delgado both getting the day off.

Ryan (Lastings Who?) Church was the offensive star with 3 hits including his sixth home run, tying him with Wright for the team lead. Luis Castillo and Marlon Anderson, both of whom have been scuffling, had two hits, as did Raul Casanova in what might be his final start with Castro close to coming back.

View John Maine's Full Season Stats

Box Score

Authored by Mike Steffanos, Posted at 1:59 AM Thursday, May 8, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (3)

In the top of the second, the Mets had the bases loaded, 2 runs in, a 3-0 lead and no one out. The game was virtually there for the taking. Another hit or two could have busted it open. Even a couple of productive outs would have been welcome.

Instead, a 1-2-3 double play and a David Wright strikeout let the Dodgers right back in, and the game slowly, excruciatingly got away. The Mets left a baker's dozen on base, Ryan Church allowed a ball off the wall to go for an inside the park homer that scored the tying and go ahead run, and what could have gone for a nice win went for another of those losses that make the 2008 Mets continue to look like a .500 team.

All things considered, starting pitcher Nelson Figueroa wasn't very lucky. On the other hand, he hasn't been very good since pitching very well in his first two starts. Here's what he's done in his last 3, including this game:

There's really nothing good across the board there. He's averaged more than 2 baserunners per inning. It's amazing the ERA isn't higher.

Bottom line -- when Moises Alou successfully steals home and avoids getting hurt while doing it, you need to win that game.

View Nelson Figueroa's Full Season Stats

Box Score

Authored by Mike Steffanos, Posted at 1:16 AM Thursday, May 8, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (0)

Due to some unforeseen circumstances I had to spend the whole day away from my computer. I just finished watching today's game on DVR and will catch up with posts on both Maine's win today and yesterday's loss.

Things should be back to normal for me tomorrow.

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Authored by Mike Steffanos, Posted at 11:35 PM Wednesday, May 7, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (0)

Sorry for being late. This has been a crazy day. I have to run out of here in a few minutes, so this will have to be brief.

If you stayed up late last night to watch this one you may have felt a sense of déjà vu. We've seen this sort of offensive performance often this season -- the Mets let an opposing pitcher off the hook in the early going when he is struggling a little, then he shuts them down.

I know that Oliver Perez has taken somewhat of a beating in the press today, and some of it is warranted, but the Mets have been so poor offensively in the early going that I think it is starting to affect the pitchers. When your team consistently struggles to score runs I think you worry more about making a mistake -- and that's not really what you should be thinking of when you pitch.

Right now the Mets are scoring about as often as the fat kid that plays the tuba in the marching band. With Carlos Delgado showing some signs of life and Moises Alou shaking the rust off, you'd like to think the Mets can be at least a competent offense. I suspect that if they can accomplish this you might see Perez, Mike Pelfrey and John Maine relax a little.

View Oliver Perez's Full Season Stats

Box Score

Authored by Mike Steffanos, Posted at 3:54 PM Tuesday, May 6, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (1)

Gary Sparber has pictures posted from Johan Santana's last Shea start vs. the Pirates:

View Gary's pics

There are some nice action shots of Johan's delivery that really illustrate how much of his power is generated from the leg drive.

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Authored by Mike's Mets, Posted at 11:50 AM Tuesday, May 6, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (0)

Last Friday, the NY Sun's Tim Marchman wrote a piece calling for the immediate firing of Mets' manager Willie Randolph. Marchman, who enjoys a cult following among younger fans and bloggers, is usually coolly analytical. For this particular article, however, he chose to take a walk on the melodramatic and illogically reactionary ground usually reserved for talk radio hosts:

It's time for the Mets to fire Willie Randolph. They should fire him if his team sweeps the Arizona Diamondbacks this weekend. They should fire him if his team wins all three games by a total score of 27-0. They should fire him if his team puts on such a display this weekend that the greater Phoenix area literally burns to the ground around them, lit by nothing but the intensity of their passion and brilliance. The man's time is up, and nothing can change that.

Now I know many of you are anti-Willie and may concur with the sentiment, but that doesn't alleviate the irrationality of blaming Willie Randolph for such varied sins from the horrible final game of the Pirates series as Ollie's poor pitching, Reyes not covering a base and the lineup falling asleep again. According to Marchman these were not "random failures of talent, but unforgivable errors of concentration and execution."

Marchman can be a little pompous at times, but I usually find his pieces logical and thought-provoking. Not here. In paragraph after lurid paragraph, Marchman makes himself the judge and jury which declares Randolph guilty of such various things as Carlos Delgado getting old and Mike Pelfrey failing to pitch well. Ultimately, it all adds up to utter nonsense.

Look, there are legitimate complaints to be had with Randolph, and it's fair to say that his job is in the balance now -- and deservedly so. But that doesn't give me, Tim Marchman, or anyone else any legitimate license to blame Randolph for everything that is wrong with the Mets while glossing over anything that's going right.

You know, I was going to leave this one alone until Marchman followed up with a second article today that seems to be an attempt to back off from some of the illogical melodrama of this first piece:

The question that needs to be asked about Willie Randolph, then, is whether he's likely to manage well or not. There are some good reasons why he should keep his job, not least that the Mets have won more than they've lost and are just a half game out of first place. The point those of us who think he should be fired are making, though, isn't that he's so awful that he should be turned into a burnt offering to appease the angry baseball gods, but that under his leadership the Mets are likely to keep muddling along, not doing too badly but not doing especially well, either. The team is capable of something more.

Part of the reason that this is a difficult argument to make is that there is no generally accepted way to judge a manager other than by wins, which is the point Williams was making. Dusty Baker was a great manager in San Francisco when he had Barry Bonds, and in Chicago when Carlos Zambrano, Mark Prior, and Kerry Wood were all healthy; when he no longer had the best player of all time or a trio of aces, he was ripe to be fitted for a dunce cap. Along this line of reasoning, Randolph has done fine; the Mets may have looked flat in April, but then Moises Alou and Pedro Martinez were hurt, and after all he's won more than he's lost three years running. It's far too early to say he should lose his job, some would say, especially coming off a series win this weekend over Arizona, whom I claimed would flay the Mets.

With the notable exception of 2006, though, the Mets haven't done especially well under Randolph. In 2005, they won seven fewer games than they should have, given how many runs they scored and allowed; last year, they won two more, but kicked away a seven-game lead with 17 left to play, and this year, under pressure, they opened the season playing apathetic, unfocused baseball. I've come to think this isn't coincidence, and that Randolph's style is largely to blame.

The idea that the Mets underachieved in 2005 doesn't hold water for me. The bullpen was putrid and blew a lot of leads. It was so bad that Danny Graves received 20 chances to prove how done he truly was. The 2005 Mets bullpen lost 20 games and blew 17 saves. The offense wasn't that great, either, as Beltran struggled all year, Piazza declined, and Mientkiewicz was among the least productive first basemen in baseball. They looked like a .500 team to me from the get-go, and that's how it went.

By the same metric that Marchman uses to indict Randolph for 2005, Pythagorean Win-Loss, he grudgingly allows that the Mets outperformed it by two games last season. What he doesn't mention is that they also outperformed it in 2006. Despite one injury after another to the starting pitching, the 2006 Mets won 6 games more than they should have. So basically, Randolph's Mets outperformed their expected Pythagorean win total in 2 of his 3 years managing the team.

Don't get me wrong, I don't read as much into this one metric that Marchman apparently does, but fairness and consistency would demand that he not selectively utilize it only when it backs up his point. Shame on you, Tim Marchman.

I'm not going to launch into a big defense of Willie here. I thought he did a good job in 2005 in altering the defeatist mentality here and in 2006 in piloting a club that overcame tremendous adversity (losing your top two pitchers) to come within a game of the World Series. Given that not even Randolph's biggest proponents find him to be a particularly sharp strategic manager, his strength before last season was getting his club to play the game right and not give in to misfortune.

Last season he failed to find the right notes to accomplish any of that. It's possible that Willie does not have the flexibility to adjust to the changing motivational needs of his club, and that his style no longer suits the club. The difference between managers who succeed for a short time -- as Willie did in 2005 and 2006, whether Marchman can admit it or not -- and those who stick around for the long-term is their ability to adjust their style to suit the current needs of their team.

Willie didn't make the adjustment last season, and now he is on a short leash because of that. I'm not convinced he can make the adjustment this year, but he deserves a chance to try. If he can't guide this club into the playoffs he should be fired. It will be time for a different voice.

Make no mistake about it, though, there are problems with this team that go beyond any manager's skills. Carlos Delgado (.213) actually has a higher AVG than Carlos Beltran now (.210). Beltran edges Delgado slightly in SLG .370-.361. These are the two highest paid position players on the team. The bullpen has allowed 11 HR in 29 games. The club is old and fragile.

Yet if Willie earns more than his fair share of the blame, he is his own worst enemy in that matter. He has alienated the local press and seems incapable of projecting a face to the public that shows any fire and passion. A lifelong New Yorker, he should be smart enough to get the writers on his side and show the fan base that he isn't just a bland, businesslike drone. Willie is stubborn and inflexible in these matters, and it will likely cost him his job.

If that does happen, so be it -- as long as he's fired for the right reasons.

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Authored by Mike Steffanos, Posted at 6:06 PM Monday, May 5, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (10)

The Mets had just enough pitching, just enough hitting, and took advantage of just enough breaks to pull out the rubber game of their series vs. the Diamondbacks in Arizona.

Johan Santana battled through an uncharacteristically wild day to hand the bullpen a 2-1 lead after six innings. After issuing only 8 walks in his first 6 starts, Santana handed out four free passes to Arizona hitters, although two were intentional. It took him 116 pitches to navigate 6 innings.

Part of this was due to the excellent approach of the Arizona hitters, who are patient despite their youth. Santana was having problems getting his off-speed pitches over all afternoon, and that contributed also.

Meanwhile the Mets weren't managing a ton of offense off of Danny Haren. They scratched out a run in the third when Brian Schneider led off with a walk, was bunted to second by Santana, and singled home by Reyes with a clutch 2-out hit. They tacked on in the fourth when Haren made a rare mistake and left a fastball up for Wright, who took him deep.

The D-backs got one back when C Chris Snyder tripled off the very top of the left field wall to bring home Justin Upton. Another inch higher and it would have tied the game.

I thought Arizona manager Bob Melvin made a mistake when he pulled Haren out for a PH in the sixth despite a low pitch count (85). They were down 2-1 at that point, but it was clearly Santana's last inning, and the Mets bullpen has hardly been lights-out. I know Arizona's 'pen has been great, but he could have had another inning out of Haren easy.

Joe Smith came in to the still 2-1 game in the seventh and showed the reasons he is both intriguing and frustrating. He struck out the first two batters he faced, but then allowed a single to Conor Jackson and walked Justin Upton after falling behind 3-0 and battling back to 3-2. The walk came back to haunt him as Mark Reynolds plated Jackson with a soft single to left.

The Mets had a chance in the top of the eighth, but Wright couldn't get the job done with 2 on and 2 out.

The game essentially turned in the bottom of the eighth. Pedro Feliciano faced Chris Burk leading off the inning, and Burk laid down a great bunt. Feliciano tried to rush the play and threw wild past 1B. Burk had the play in front of him and was clearly looking to get to third all the way, but was nailed on a near-perfect throw from Ryan Church and a great tag by Wright. If he had been safe at third the D-backs would have certainly had a great chance of getting the go-ahead run.

Singles by Carlos Beltran and Moises Alou put the Mets in the driver seat in the top of the ninth. Delgado hit a ground ball to Jackson at first that had double play potential. It should have at least resulted in a force at second, but Jackson rushed and airmailed the throw for an error that scored the tie breaker. The Mets tacked on a couple more on a pinch hit by Marlon Anderson and a sac fly by Reyes, and Wagner pitched a perfect ninth to secure the win.

After seeing the Diamondbacks for three games it clear to see that they are the class of the NL based on more than having the best record. Terrific starting pitching, a diverse and effective bullpen and more than enough offense ensures that the rest of the NL west is already playing for the wildcard.

Although the young D-backs hitters have some growing up to do, I admired the way they worked opposing pitchers in a manner that I could only wish the Mets hitters would attain. That's a result of having an organization that drafts great talent and then teaches it the right way to play. In a lot of ways the D-backs remind me of the Braves at the start of their great run in the early 90s.

Given that, I thought starting Micah Owings on Friday was a strange move. He was clearly not driving off his injured right ankle, which not only led to his relative ineffectiveness in the game but also put him at risk to get hurt. A pitcher changing his delivery to compensate for an injury -- especially somewhere on the leg -- has led to many arm and shoulder surgeries over the years. It's not like they're hurting for pitching there. They should have been more conservative with one of the game's top young pitchers -- in my mind, anyway.

On to LA to face another team that has been playing well and features great pitching.

View Johan Santana's Full Season Stats

Box Score

Authored by Mike Steffanos, Posted at 1:53 PM Monday, May 5, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (2)

When discussing the outstanding trades the Mets have made over the years, the acquisition of Bernard Gilkey from the Cardinals is usually forgotten. In part, this could be because Gilkey really had only one good year for the Mets - although it was a terrific one, and also because even with Gilkey, the 1996 Mets weren't a very good team. Yet, Gilkey remains possibly the only experienced hitter ever to come to the Mets and immediately respond with the very best year of his career.

Gilkey had been the regular left fielder for the Cardinals for a few years and always was solid, if unspectaular. In 1995, Gilkey batted .298 with 17 homeruns and 69 rbi's. Then in December of 1995, St. Louis signed Ron Gant as a free agent and suddenly Gilkey was out of a job. Based on his past performances, it would have seemed that the Cardinals could have dealt Gilkey for much more than they got in return from the Mets in January, 1996 - minor league pitchers Eric Hiljus and Eric Ludwick (brother of current Cardinal of Ryan Ludwick) and outfielder Yudith Rosario. It seemed like a trade the Mets really couldn't lose on, unless one of the young players they sent away became a star. Of course, that didn't happen. Remarkably, though, Gilkey had an exceptional season for the Mets in '96, .317, 30, 117 - career highs in every department (compare to Gant's .246, 30, 82 for the '96 Cardinals). Gilkey sort of reverted to form in 1997 and was soon gone from the Mets, but his legacy remains as possibly the only hitter in the 46-year history of the Mets to post a career year immediately after being traded here. If anyone can think of another, please let me know!

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Authored by Barry Duchan, Posted at 11:06 AM Sunday, May 4, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (4)

Some people like to divide a major league baseball season into halves or quarters. Managers often try to help their team focus on the task at hand by concentrating on a ten-game stretch. Me, I'm a little weird. I like sixths. Like the small pepperoni pies at Pizza King, or the colored plastic wedges in a Trivial Pursuits game, I like the symmetry of one-sixth. A half of a third, or a third of a half if you like. Now that we're a half of a third of the way through 2008, I've learned a few things about these New York Mets:

These Mets will win 90 games:  Whether that's enough to earn them a division title or even a wild card remains to be seen. The Cards and Diamondbacks have had quick starts, but none of the other 14 teams in the National League, and no one in the East, is wowing the world. The fact that these Mets have lost several games already they should have won, and have had the predictable rash of mostly age-related injuries, makes their current perch just a half game out of first place a pleasant surprise.

No Mets pitcher will come close to 20 wins:  Three Mets have three wins each, and that leads the team. Seventeen other teams in baseball have a pitcher with more than three wins. Not us. Even if Maine and Santana continue pitching as well as they have to date, they'll both get more than their share of no-decisions and leads blown by a hot and cold bullpen. Back in the day, twenty wins was par for a good pitcher having a very good season. These days, twenty wins puts the phrase "Cy Young contender" next to your name. Jorge (7.02 ERA) Sosa is the Mets' other three-game winner, but he may not win three more games the rest of the season. Of course, by that same extrapolation logic, Chien-Ming Wang will end the season 30-0. And the Yankees still won't make the post-season.

Reyes and Wright can be the best 1-2 combo in baseball:  When they both keep their heads in the game, that is. Friday night's win over the D-Backs was a glimpse at what Citi Field could see for at least the next decade. Every player makes a bad throw, or botches a rundown on occasion. Not every player keeps the fans bolted to their seats (or their TV) during every one of their at-bats. These two do.

These Mets have the thinnest bench in baseball:  This will improve as the walking wounded start walking again, but for now, pinch-hitting for the pitcher is as close to a guaranteed out as you can get. I'd honestly rather see Johan Santana pinch-hitting with runners on base than some of the conventional choices available to Willie so far.

Carlos and Carlos have to heat up soon:  Don't they? If they don't pull themselves up and over the Mendoza line by Memorial Day at the latest, though, remember this name: Valentino Pascucci. The 6'6" 260 pound first-baseman/outfielder just got picked up by New Orleans. While his offensive numbers are nothing special this year, he's led the minors in homers in Double-A ('02) and Triple-A ('07). If the Mets grow the cojones to sit either Beltran or Delgado for any length of time, the Scooch may see the inside of a major leaguer ballpark yet.

Willie or Won't He?:  Since I don't get the New York papers here in Orlando, I apologize if I've swiped a recent headline unwittingly. The question, of course, is - will he or won't he get his walking papers? I'm squarely on the fence on this issue. I like what I see of the person of Willie Randolph. But I must admit I shake my head at least twice a week over some move he made or didn't make. I don't think fans, bloggers, or even dinosaur journalists have the information they need to make an informed choice on the Mets' skipper. Since we can't see inside the clubhouse, none of us knows whether he's a good influence, a bad influence, or no influence at all on the players. That last option would be the most damning of all. There are plenty of names Mets fans know waiting in the wings should Randolph get the ax: HoJo, Teufel, Alfonzo, and Backman are some of the ones I've heard. Whether any of them would improve the Mets' won-lost record is impossible to know. Give Omar credit, though, for his anti-Steinbrennerish refusal to stick his finger in the air to see which way the winds of public opinion are blowing that day. We have plenty of politicians doing that; we don't need a GM with that little substance.

So, with one-third of one-half if this season done, these Mets are, to me, not as good as I'd hoped, but in a far better position than their play for the first 27 games would justify. Now give me my blue plastic wedge, and a greasy slice of heaven from Pizza King, and let's get back to playing the game.

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Authored by NostraDennis, Posted at 12:01 AM Sunday, May 4, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (5)