Lowered Expectations, Part Deux

A November parade is quite unlikely, but I'm oddly excited about the upcoming New York Mets season.

I was pretty confident in the Mets' chances heading into last season. While nothing is certain in baseball, I thought they were as close as it gets to a sure thing for making the playoffs. And that would have been a big deal. As I pointed out in a post that I wrote a year ago, the Mets have only made the playoffs in consecutive years twice in their entire history: 1999 and 2000 under Bobby Valentine, and 2015 and 2016 with Terry Collins running the show. And that 2016 appearance was a one-and-done Wild Card game ouster.

On Prospects and Analytics

David Stearns has taken heat for moves he hasn't made this winter, but he is laying the groundwork for a transformational season.

The Mets organization has no history of being a player development juggernaut. There have been some good homegrown players over the years, even a few great ones. But there has never been a significant era in the Mets' existence fueled by a farm system continually delivering talent to the major league club. Over many decades, this has been a primary reason why the club has been unable to sustain winning.

In Search of the Winning Attitude

With their poor play in May and June, the Mets showed just how far they still have to go to build a consistent winner for this franchise.

When the Mets completed a sub-par month of May with a losing 14-15 record, I worried about how that would carry over into June, where they were scheduled to face more formidable opposition. Even in my darkest nightmares, I didn't foresee a dismal 7-19 record that made a playoff spot a long shot for a team I once hoped would contend for the NL East title. If the Mets can't parlay the 6-game winning streak that fizzled out Saturday night and Sunday in San Diego into a sustained period of solid play, they will undoubtedly find themselves going home at the conclusion of the regular season.

Waiting for the Future to Arrive

The first playoff appearance of the Cohen-era Mets was far from a success. Let's hope there are many opportunities ahead to get it right.

The World Series matchup is set and, once again, I'm left without a team to root for. I've always envied fans who can shift allegiances in the postseason. For myself, choosing between two teams I dislike is as satisfying as choosing between a colonoscopy and a root canal. I'll just take none of the above, thank you.

This Kid May Have Something

Although he didn't receive much fanfare before this season, Mets prospect Junior Tilien is making himself someone to watch going forward.

I don't normally write about prospects at this site. It's not that I don't care. I actually spend as much time as I can following the exploits of New York Mets prospects. I'm checking daily to keep up with the latest exploits of Mets farmhands like Francisco Álvarez, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio. I look forward to the day when top pitching prospect Matt Allan returns after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May 2021.

With the Present on Hold, We Look to the Future

It was good news that negotiations between MLB and the Players Association resumed Sunday, but I fear we're still a considerable distance from playing major league ballgames this season. Still, the only way this will ever resolve is if the two sides continue talking to each other. Meanwhile, the only baseball being played in spring training camps is with minor leaguers who are not on the 40-man roster. Players on the 40-man, even if they haven't played an inning at the major league level, are still part of the MLBPA and are locked out along with major league ballplayers.

Focus On the Future if the Lockout Drags On

As expected, the first proposal since the lockout began from MLB to the Players Association did nothing to gain any traction towards an eventual settlement. In fairness, nobody who covers the sport seemed to be expecting anything substantial from MLB and Rob Manfred. If there is anything hopeful for fans to find in the offer, it was simply that the process has been started again. I personally don't expect serious offers to be made this month, but even half-serious talking is better than none at all.

Oblique House

Last night's New York Mets game against the Pirates was so boring that I fell asleep on it, literally. In fairness, that was partly due to the medications I'm taking since my operations. But I've seen a version of that game so many times this season that even the little kerfuffle between Marcus Stroman and the immortal John Nogowski didn't provide much of a stimulant. And worry about a potential Francisco Lindor injury didn't do the trick, either. Right after it happened, it was so obviously the type of oblique injury that will cause Lindor to miss a good-sized chunk of time that dwelling on how it might eventually play out seemed rather pointless.

Making the Future Brighter, Part 2

Although I am not someone with the skills to evaluate prospects, I've been interested in scouting and development for quite a while. Years ago, as I began to question the lack of sustained success by the New York Mets, I began to look around at the clubs that were much more successful — particularly in smaller markets than New York. The biggest common denominator was an ability to find and develop Major League ballplayers. There are a lot of moving parts in scouting and development. All of them have to be working properly for a club to attain and sustain success at the Major League level. As important as developing a good number of contributing Major League ballplayers, it's even more important that some players become impact Major Leaguers.

The Return of Some Old Friends

Things are looking slightly better for the New York Mets today after they managed to pull out a split of the series against the St. Louis Cardinals. It's not as if there aren't still obvious problems, of course. The Mets actually set an all-time team record for men left on base in a 9-inning game in yesterday's finale. But they had a winning road trip and are managing to keep their heads above water while trying to get everything clicking and make a real run. The 13-13 record isn't ideal, but it could be a lot worse. Thank goodness for the solid starting pitching and surprisingly effective bullpen while the club attempts to warm up those ice-cold bats.

Microbes, Gizmos, and Being a Bit Greedy

As I expected, the rest of the weekend series against the Nationals was postponed, and now we have to wait until Monday for the Mets' Opening Day. As much as that sucks, it seemed inevitable once the first game was called off. The only thing that's going to put an end to all of these "out of an abundance of caution" covid stoppages will be when most MLB players and coaches are vaccinated. It will be a relief not to have the ever-present threat of having baseball taken away with no warning hanging over our heads any longer. In the meantime, this is proof-positive that, while normal may be in sight, it's not here yet.

Building Better Pitching

Tim Britton had an outstanding piece in The Athletic today about the Mets organization's efforts to create a state-of-the-art pitching development program. Under the Wilpons, the team had been notoriously reluctant to buy into the latest trends in player development. This likely reflected some skepticism towards new technologies on their part and a certain cheapness towards investing in something that didn't pay obvious and immediate benefits. That's probably a good reason why the Mets have historically lagged behind the top organizations in developing talent. Fortunately, new Mets owner Steve Cohen sees the benefits of investing in the future. That should pay dividends for the club and its fans going forward.

Surviving Carlos Carrasco's Sore Elbow

An old baseball adage is that you can never have too much pitching. This spring, it didn't take the New York Mets very long to prove the wisdom of this saying. Now likely to begin the season without Seth Lugo, one of their best relievers, and Carlos Carrasco, their #2 starter, the depth the Mets put together this winter is already being tested. Fortunately, the Mets seem in a pretty good position to survive these setbacks. Not that it's ever ideal to lose key contributors for any length of time, but having a deep and flexible pool of pitching to draw from is going to be key for any team hoping to make some waves in 2021.

Launch Angles, Spin Rates, and Bucking the Trend

It wasn't all that long ago that I didn't spend any of my time pondering the finer points of pitchers' spin rates or batters' launch angles. I think about them a lot lately. It's not that these are recent innovations in baseball. We've understood for a long time that the ability to impart spin on a baseball caused the ball to move in some combination of the horizontal and verticle axes, dependent on the spin. This, in turn, makes the pitches more difficult for the hitter to square up. We've also known that home run hitters incorporated an uppercut in their swings to hit more balls in the air and, hopefully, out of the park.

Why Signing Sam McWilliams Really Mattered

Tim Healey had an article in Newsday yesterday about Sam McWilliams, signed by the Mets this winter to compete for a spot in their bullpen. The Mets elected to ink McWilliams to a Major League contract, although the tall righty had never pitched an inning in the majors and has only 44 innings in one season at Triple-A. He didn't even excel at that level, with an ERA north of 8.  The decision to outbid other teams for McWilliams was based not on track record but rather on analysis and projection. If you're thinking to yourself that this is the kind of move the Wilpons never would have signed off on, you're almost undoubtedly correct. Indeed, this signing was one of the first indications this winter that things were changing for the Mets.

International Signing Blues

The international signing period for MLB clubs began yesterday. It had been postponed from July 2, due to the pandemic. Unlike the amateur draft, there is no draft order for international free agents. Clubs have a fixed amount of bonus pool money to spend, and can basically use that pool to sign as many free agents as they can come to an agreement with. Although the signing period began yesterday, these agreements between clubs and players have been made months ago, long before the current Mets regime took over. This is significant, because the Mets are not expected to reach an agreement with any player in MLB.com's Top 30 free agents. You could find the list here. There are a couple of Cuban players on the list who reportedly may wait until the next signing period begins.

Maximizing Player Value

The Tampa Bay Rays get a lot of credit, most of it deserved, for running a pretty successful baseball club on a small budget. Of course, it wasn't always that way. When they came into being as the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, they spent their first decade of existence in last place in the AL East. Their best year from 1998-2007 was in 2004, the only time they won 70 games. Meanwhile, they lost over 100 games in three different years. I know the Mets franchise got off to a much tougher start back in the sixties, but baseball was much less liberal in giving players to expansion teams back then, and there was no amateur draft until 1965. I'd argue that being terrible for a decade puts the Rays in a class by themselves for ineptitude, despite the assist from the Mets in giving up Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano in 2004.

Getting the Little Things Right

Back about a month ago, I was writing about the Mets' search for a President of Baseball Operations that wasn't going very well. None of the names that Alderson and Cohen had prioritized were panning out. They couldn't get permission to speak with many of them, and the ones they did meet with cited family reasons for not wanting to uproot and come to New York City. It was amusing when a few items started popping up in the media, questioning whether the struggle to get candidates to even interview represented some sort of early failure for Cohen's regime. Talk about a hot take!

Decisions, Decisions

The Mets made a qualifying offer to pitcher Marcus Stroman today. If he accepts, he gets $18.9 million to stay here for one more year. If he rejects the offer and signs elsewhere, the Mets get a draft pick. This is a no-brainer for the Mets, who retain Stroman for a year at a fairly reasonable price if he accepts their offer.

You're a Mean One, Mr. Grinch

I always feel a little melancholy at the end of the World Series. Baseball is the only sport that I still care passionately about, and the beginning of the next baseball season always feels very far away. This feeling has been compounded over the past decade or so by the certain knowledge that the Mets weren't going to do anything particularly interesting over the offseason. As bad as the Wilpons with money were at running the Mets, the Wilpons without money were abysmal. As a Mets fan in recent years, the hot stove months often made me feel like a kid waking up on Christmas morning eager to open his presents, only to find that they were all clothing and school supplies.